How Clarkson Beat Willard-Lewis

A lot of people did not expect Clarkson to win this race, including some of our local pundits like Clancy Dubos who thought Willard-Lewis would pull it out. What was the deciding factor in this race? Was it turnout? "Crossover" vote appeal? Race? The rotten garbage contract and Willard-Lewis's amendments to the ordinance that set the 25 pound debris limit? Was it Nagin's endorsement?

I think you could legitimately argue that all of these played a role in the outcome of this election, but the early poll data indicates that the most significant factor was the disparity between black turnout and white turnout.

New Orleans is still a majority black city by a significant margin. We have about 15 percent more blacks than whites in New Orleans, even after Katrina. Yet the early poll data indicates that the disparity in registered voter turnout between blacks and whites was dramatic. It looks like registered black voter turnout was somewhere between 10 and 20 percent while whites turned out somewhere between 30 and 40 percent. According to the data I've seen and the conversations I've had with various campaign staffers and other sources suggests that it was about 15% black turnout and 35% white. This tremendous gap in turnout eclipsed any difference in white or black population numbers and was likely the most significant factor in several local races including victories for Jackie Clarkson, Laurie White, Walt Leger, and Cheryl Gray.

For Clarkson and White, the turnout gap was really the deciding factor as those two races were very close. For Leger and Gray, it was the fuel for their ass whoopings of their opponents, Judy Bajoie-Phillips and Jalila Jefferson-Bullock.

Despite the fact that Gray and Jefferson-Bullock are both black, this turnout gap propelled Gray over Jefferson because of Gray's "crossover" appeal with white voters in contrast to that of the Jefferson family name which is a more than tarnished name with most white voters.

I don't know if this is a reliable indicator for future campaign strategies, as this race had some interesting combined circumstances such as no gubernatorial runoff, a wave of media stories and federal indictments against black elected officials, and an unpopular poor performing black mayor who became at least partially a referendum issue in the City Council election.

Personally, the only candidate who won locally that I felt really good about was Cheryl Gray. I'm hopeful however that Clarkson will be the 4th reform vote on the Council. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on James Carter, who had been seen as the swing vote on the current Council.

Also, is there any bigger loser in this last election cycle than John Georges who blew $11 million to finish 3rd in the Governor's race and then donated $15,000 to Willard-Lewis and sent out a mailer on her behalf thanking her for her support (and Fielkow's) in Georges' Governor's race? And now he wants to be Mayor of New Orleans?