1. I am a very stupid man.
2. Clinton is one tough candidate who is underestimated at your own peril.
3. Like with Tom Bradley in the 1982 California Governor's race and Harold Washington in the 1983 Chicago Mayor's race, white people often tend to not tell the truth about whether or not they support black candidates in polls. To paraphrase Gloria Steinem, black people are never frontrunners either. Big leads in polls for blacks often do not actually hold up at the ballot box.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
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3 comments:
If the naively simplistic #3 were correct, it would really elevate the electability concerns about Obama -- if it holds true in a Democratic Primary, it would really hold true in a general election. Polls took place from Fri. thru Sunday (in some case Fri-Mon.), Clinton surge began with a debate Saturday night, but reached its crescendo on Monday with the backlash against media distortions (lies actually) about Hillary's non-crying and that stupid shock jock stunt on Monday. It's not rocket science, the polls' failure almost certainly had more to with late events than dishonest responses. I'm no Clinton backer, BTW.
I agree with BSJD although I'm inclined to give more credit to her debate performance (and his) than the non-crying on Monday. Still, it was a big surprise. I, for one, am extremely pleased that some of us in the other 48 states (besides Iowa & NH) will have some say in both parties' nominees. Novel idea, it is.
I might have been a little rude (naively simplistic, sorry), but there does seem to have been some elitism behind the claims of the Bradley effect.
Plus, I prefer to attribute it to hitting back against media manipulation.
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