What This Means For New Hampshire

The current thinking seems to be that Romney's 2nd place finish opens the door wide open in New Hampshire for McCain. I don't think that is the case, as McCain is still unpopular with the Republican base (even though of the big 4 - Romney, Huckabee, Giulliani, and McCain - he is the most right wing of them all) and he can no longer depend on the independent voters who delivered for him in 2000 against Bush.

Why?

Two reasons: the Iraq War and Obama.

Independents by a (small) majority oppose the war and McCain is the hawkiest most pro-war candidate in the field. And independent voters in New Hampshire may vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, but not both. They must choose. Obama the candidate and his big politics campaign message against partisanship resonates strongly with independents, along with his long opposition to the Iraq War.

Obama is Romney's best buddy for New Hampshire to stop McCain from destroying Romney's candidacy. If Romney loses New Hampshire, his campaign will be almost certainly over. For Republicans, it is a 3 man race in New Hampshire now between Giulliani, McCain, and Romney. Huckabee though may surprise now after his ass whooping in Iowa.

If Obama can finish first or a close second (3 or fewer points) to Hillary in New Hampshire, I think he wins the nomination, as it will lead to an exodus of black Hillary supporters for Obama in South Carolina who will realize this black man could actually win this thing. Obama could then be in position to lock up the black vote and split the white vote three ways fairly evenly. At the very least, it then becomes a two man race with Edwards.