New Hampshire May Indicate, Among Other Things That

1. I am a very stupid man.
2. Clinton is one tough candidate who is underestimated at your own peril.
3. Like with Tom Bradley in the 1982 California Governor's race and Harold Washington in the 1983 Chicago Mayor's race, white people often tend to not tell the truth about whether or not they support black candidates in polls. To paraphrase Gloria Steinem, black people are never frontrunners either. Big leads in polls for blacks often do not actually hold up at the ballot box.

New Hampshire Predictions

Democrats
41% - Obama
29% - Clinton
18% - Edwards


Republicans
26% - Romney
24% - McCain
14% - Huckabee
14% - Giulliani
12% - Paul
10% - Thompson


Update
WCBF chimes in. WCBF is predicting a McCain win, but I think he is going to be disapointed by the independent voter turnout which is mostly going to Obama instead of McCain this time around. I still think the Republican nomination race is between Romney and McCain though, with Giulliani in decent position and Huckabee still a one trick dark pony, though with increasing credibility.

Update2
YRHT weighs in as well, predicting an almost 20 point blowout for Obama. I think Oyster might actually be closer in prediction now than I am, considering these reports of overwhelming unprecedented Democratic primary turnout that has led to an unexpected ballot shortage.

But if that is the case, then that also makes my Romney upset of McCain prediction all the more likely with voters who would otherwise be McCain supporters forsaking him and jumping onto the Obama train.

What This Means For New Hampshire

The current thinking seems to be that Romney's 2nd place finish opens the door wide open in New Hampshire for McCain. I don't think that is the case, as McCain is still unpopular with the Republican base (even though of the big 4 - Romney, Huckabee, Giulliani, and McCain - he is the most right wing of them all) and he can no longer depend on the independent voters who delivered for him in 2000 against Bush.

Why?

Two reasons: the Iraq War and Obama.

Independents by a (small) majority oppose the war and McCain is the hawkiest most pro-war candidate in the field. And independent voters in New Hampshire may vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, but not both. They must choose. Obama the candidate and his big politics campaign message against partisanship resonates strongly with independents, along with his long opposition to the Iraq War.

Obama is Romney's best buddy for New Hampshire to stop McCain from destroying Romney's candidacy. If Romney loses New Hampshire, his campaign will be almost certainly over. For Republicans, it is a 3 man race in New Hampshire now between Giulliani, McCain, and Romney. Huckabee though may surprise now after his ass whooping in Iowa.

If Obama can finish first or a close second (3 or fewer points) to Hillary in New Hampshire, I think he wins the nomination, as it will lead to an exodus of black Hillary supporters for Obama in South Carolina who will realize this black man could actually win this thing. Obama could then be in position to lock up the black vote and split the white vote three ways fairly evenly. At the very least, it then becomes a two man race with Edwards.

Barack the Vote

News reports are that Obama has raised at least $25 million in the quarter, with $23.9 million of it for the primary. Hillary raised $26 million total, unclear how much for the primary but good bet that it's less than Obama who raised his money from over 100,000 donors, 90% of whom gave less than $100.

Wow.

Hillary's media machine tried to take pre-emptive action yesterday, anticipating today's announcement but seriously goofed.

A top Clinton fundraiser took a jab at the rival. Obama "doesn't have the sustainability and doesn't have the ability to raise what the Clintons are able to raise," said John Catsimatidis. "Regardless of what he reports, at the end of the day, the Clintons get the nomination."

The AP reporter apparently caught the spokesperson's Freudian slip regarding "the Clintons" getting the nomination. And sorry buddy, but 100,000+ donors and 90% of donations under $100 is pretty much the fucking definition of sustainability.

But only one Clinton can get nominated — and only if she stays atop a crowded Democratic field. Her husband, former President Clinton, threw his considerable might behind her desperate drive for cash before Saturday's reporting deadline.

So apparently it doesn't matter what Obama does because in the eyes of the Clinton camp it is their destiny to get the nomination. Nice.